"Nigeria Agribusiness Report Q3 2016" Published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue Jun 14 2016

Our view on the Nigerian agribusiness sector is mixed . The cocoa industry assumes a greater importance in the country's medium - term economic future now that oil revenues can no longer be relied upon as an easy source of foreign exchange . We remain cautiously optimistic that cocoa plantations and processing facilities will continue to receive the public and private sector support needed to move forward . Poultry, dairy, sugar , rice and wheat consumption are expected to continue to depend very largely on imports to meet demand , although a much greater percentage of demand for each of these commoditie s (apart from wheat) could potentially be met by local production. Poor infrastructure, lack of access to inputs and basic technology, fragmentation and a lack of access to finance and expertise are among the factors that lead us to take a pessimistic view of the medium - term prospects for self-sufficiency.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1182860_nigeria_agribusiness_report.aspx?afid=302

Key BMI Forecasts

Cocoa production growth to 2019/20: 44.5 % to 289,100 tonnes. Global prices will remain sufficiently elevated to stimulate investment from government and private sector bodies.

Corn consumption growth to 2020: 1 7.6% to 8. 8 mn tonnes. Recovering demand from the livestock industry will support consumption growth.

2016 real GDP growth: 3. 6 % (up from 3.3% in 2015).

2016 consumer price inflation (ave): 9. 3 % (down from 9.1% in 2015).

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

We have revised up our forecast for the 2015/16 cocoa crop. We now expect a harvest of 200,000 tonnes, representing a 2.6% increase on the previous year. Our new forecast is in line with the International Cocoa Organization's forecasts. The Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria told This Day newspaper that greater investment by farmers in fertilisers and pesticides accounted for the improved outlook. This investment in inputs is likely to balance out some of the negative impact of the dry weather that raised concerns for the midcrop in Q116.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has announced a NGN26bn (USD131mn) investment in the sugar processing facility of Sunti Golden Sugar, a subsidiary of Flour Mills, according to reports in local media. The financial package is intended to support the company in its implementation of the government's programme to increase domestic sugar production. As such, the company will be expected to source its sugar from local growers as far as possible as it targets production of 100,000 tonnes of raw sugar.

Nigeria is experiencing the most serious avian flu outbreak to hit the country since a major epidemic in 2006. The disease has spread to 24 of Nigeria's 36 states, according to local media reports, which also suggest as many as 2.5mn birds have so far died from the disease or been destroyed by veterinary authorities.

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Contact Name: Bill Thompson
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