"Ghana Agribusiness Report Q1 2014" Published

We continue to expect only minor production growth in Ghana's cocoa sector in the short term owing to harvest delays on the back of dry weather. Over the long term, we forecast relatively pedestrian growth in cocoa production owing to reduced farm revenues and structural concerns in the sector, particularly labour. We forecast mild production growth for Ghanaian corn in 2013/14, the result of high prices during the planting season. Over the long term, however, we believe the country will largely maintain a balanced market. For livestock, we continue to expect Ghana to be a growing net importer of poultry over the long term due to strong demand growth.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/723570_ghana_agribusiness_report_q1_2014.aspx?afid=302

Key Forecasts

* Cocoa production growth to 2016/17: 19.8% to 988,500 tonnes. Most of this growth will be due to base effects, although growth will also come as we expect significantly higher cocoa prices over the medium term due to poor supply prospects.
* Corn production growth to 2016/17: 12.0% to 1.85mn tonnes. Ghanaian corn yields remain low in relative terms, with production still dominated by smallholders making limited use of fertilisers, mechanisation, improved seeds and post-harvest facilities. However, a 50% fertiliser subsidy introduced by the government in 2008 is improving the situation.
* 2014 real GDP growth: 6.5% (up from 7.4% in 2013; predicted to average 7.1% from 2013 to 2017).
* 2014 central bank policy rate: 15.00% end-2013 (down from 16.00% in 2012).
* 2013 consumer price inflation (average): 10.1% (down from 10.3% in 2012).

Industry Developments

We have revised our forecasts upward and now see LIFFE cocoa prices averaging GBP1,750/tonne in 2014 before averaging higher in the following years. This compares with our previous forecast for an average price of GBP1,550/tonne in 2014. We expect the market to register deficits for the duration of our forecast period out to 2017. Lacklustre global production growth and rising demand growth from major consumers are likely to force prices higher once the 2013/14 harvest begins. Indeed, we are forecasting a larger global deficit in 2013/14 (at 184,000 tonnes) than 2012/13. Towards the end of the five-year forecast period, we expect prices to average slightly lower as supply growth improves due to high prices. This will also be a function of moderating global cocoa demand, particularly from Europe, which represents 35% of global consumption. Overall, we believe higher prices will ultimately stem from a failure of the cocoa industry (particularly West Africa) to increase production by investing sufficiently in replacing ageing trees despite better production incentives.

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- France Agribusiness Report Q1 2014
- India Agribusiness Report Q1 2014
- Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q1 2014
- Russia Agribusiness Report Q1 2014
- South Africa Agribusiness Report Q1 2014