"Canada Agribusiness Report Q4 2014" Published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Oct 20 2014


Grain production will fall in Canada in 2014/15, as logistical problems during the 2013/14 season have resulted in high stocks of wheat, corn and barley. The country's livestock industry is well placed to post strong growth in 2014/15 and beyond, while we believe that the Canadian beef and pork industries will gain the most from having signed the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement in October 2013. The dairy management system, however, could be under pressure.

* Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 17.7% to 32.0mn tonnes. Liberalisation of the Canadian Wheat Board will increase competition between exporters and encourage farmers to boost production.
* Sugar consumption growth to 2018: -3.9% to 1.2mn tonnes. We are moderately bearish on sugar consumption in the medium term on the back of already high per capita consumption and changing eating habits towards healthier options.
* Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 12.2% to 1.2mn tonnes. This will be due to consumers' perception that poultry is a healthier meat, along with increasing export opportunities. High poultry prices and the recent signing of the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement are also expected to stimulate production.
* 2014 real GDP growth: 2.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). An increase compared with 2.0% in 2013.
* Consumer price inflation: 1.7% y-o-y in 2014. An increase compared with 0.9% in 2013.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 4.1% y-o-y increase to US$48.2bn in 2013/14. Forecast to decrease by an average of 0.1% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/888014_canada_agribusiness_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=302

Industry Outlook

Traditional grains such as wheat, canola and barley will all suffer y-o-y production declines in 2014/15, as farmers switch to more specialist crops as stocks in the former group remain high. We forecast 2014/15 wheat and barley production to decline by 18.9% y-o-y and 20.4% y-o-y to 30.0mn tonnes and 8.0mn tonnes respectively. In...

The Canada Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Canada Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
* Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

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