"Poland Petrochemicals Report Q4 2013" Published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Sep 09 2013

BMI View: The Polish petrochemicals industry is facing a challenging year with the contraction of the automotive industry set to dent consumption. Yet, the industry is undergoing a process of restructuring and investment that should see it come out of the downturn as a highly competitive and diversified industry. In the first five months of 2013, plastic and rubber production growth was in negative territory, although output experienced an uptick in May. BMI believes the year as a whole will witness flat growth amid challenging domestic and external market conditions. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) showed the most positive performance over the period with average growth of 6.6%, while polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) reported declines of 5.5% and 2.4% respectively, and there was negligible growth in synthetic rubber.

Poland has a large potential polyolefins market. Per capita consumption of polyolefins in Poland is among the lowest in the EU, but is rising quickly as the country's industrial requirements grow. While Poland has been a target for regional and EU suppliers, it is committed to expanding its domestic petrochemicals industry through joint ventures. Poland's ethylene capacity utilisation has fluctuated but the country is aiming to become broadly self-sufficient. It is aiming to develop sufficient polyethylene and polypropylene capacities to support export activity, as well as to meet the requirements of the domestic market for several years to come.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/671033_poland_petrochemicals_report_q4_2013.aspx?afid=302

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* We have revised down our forecasts for real GDP growth in 2013 and 2014 from 1.9% to 1.5% and 3.0% to 2.7% respectively, in light of Poland's increasingly depressed household segment. This will have knock-on effects for domestic petrochemicals consumption.
* While weak external demand due to stagnant eurozone growth will cause exports to be softer, the collapse in domestic demand combined with lower capital goods requirements will ensure that exports outpace imports, and we expect net exports to remain the dominant driver of real GDP growth over the near term.
* There is growing optimism in the construction segment, where we forecast average growth of 1.9% yearon- year during the 2013-2017 forecast period. As a result, construction-related materials - especially PVC - will experience growth in demand.
* The export-oriented automotive industry - a major domestic engineering plastics, rubber and polyurethanes (PUs) consumer - is set for a 5% contraction in output in 2013, following a decline of 26% in 2012.

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