"Mexico Tourism Report Q4 2013" Published

BMI believes Mexico's tourism industry has enormous long-term potential, largely due to its proximity to the US; however, there are concerns in regards to rising levels of insecurity and the negative image this is sending to potential tourists.

Data from the Mexican Ministry of Tourism (SecTur) shows that tourist arrivals to Mexico are declining on an annual basis. Between January and April 2013, 7.9mn tourists arrived in the country, representing a yearon- year (y-o-y) decline of 1.2%. This decline was led in particular by a 13.7% decline in cruise arrivals, which may suggest that Mexican cruise destinations are suffering at the expense of Caribbean-only cruises.

In addition, border tourism (defined as one-night or day only tourist visits) fell by 4.0%, indicating fewer visitors from the US.

This data is in line with our forecasts for a 3.0% decline in tourist arrivals in 2013, largely as a result of a 4.4% decline in North America tourists. However, encouragingly for the Mexican tourist industry, tourism expenditure has continued to rise despite a decline in arrivals. Between January and April 2013, tourist expenditure totalled US$4.3bn, up by 6.5% y-o-y. This indicates that the value of tourism is continuing to rise despite lower tourist numbers, boding well for longer-term tourism sector growth.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/698091_mexico_tourism_report_q4_2013.aspx?afid=302

Key forecasts for Mexico's tourism industry:

* BMI has revised its forecast for arrivals and now anticipates a decline of 3.0% for 2013. This is as a result of falling arrivals from the US and ongoing concerns about the security situation, as well as a rebound from the estimated high arrivals growth of 8.4% seen in 2012.
* BMI has revised down its forecast for hotel industry growth, with hotels and establishments anticipated to increase from an estimated 18,390 in 2012 to 22,300 in 2017.

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