"Italy Country Risk Report Q2 2015" Published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Apr 13 2015


Core Views

* Italy will return to modest growth in 2014 and 2015, although a weak labour market and ongoing contraction in credit growth will continue to impede a more robust recovery.
* We view positively the urgent structural reform agenda of new Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. However, we remain sceptical that he will be able to avoid the chronic instability, political infighting and rigid vested interests that that have in the past impeded reform efforts.
* Lack of significant structural reform in previous years seriously jeopardises Italy's long-term growth trajectory, and raises the risks that the public sector debt burden will become unsustainable.
* Even if reforms aimed at addressing Italy's decline in productivity growth and external competitiveness are passed, an ageing demographic profile will make debt consolidation efforts over the long term exceedingly difficult.

Major Forecast Changes

* No major forecast changes

Key Risks To Outlook

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/974376_italy_country_risk_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=302

* If Renzi's reform programme succeeds at rapidly pushing through key reforms in 2014 and 2015, we see upside risks to our growth forecasts over the medium and long term. Although these structural reforms would likely take several years before their full effect on the real economy is felt, immediate positive benefits could come in the form of rising investor and business confidence, lowering credit spreads and encouraging domestic firms to expand and invest.
* The Italian banking sector remains a key downside risk ahead of the European Central Bank's Asset Quality Review. Any major capital shortfalls uncovered could reignite the negative feedback loop between sovereign and banking sector risk, leading to another rapid loss of investor confidence in Italian assets. This would significant impede the government efforts to push through reform while staying within the European Union's budget deficit limits.

The Italy Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Italy. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Italy's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Italy's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Italy's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156 (1.413.485.7001 Int'l)

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email: press@fastmr.com
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001

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