"Canada Country Risk Report Q4 2015" Published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Sep 07 2015


There is a high likelihood of a coalition government being formed after this year's federal general election, after a surge in support for the NDP.

Lower investment in the energy sector will lead to weaker average real GDP growth over the coming years, particularly in the absence of higher manufacturing activity.

The prospect of a technical recession and below-target inflation suggest that the Bank of Canada is not done with monetary easing. We see another 25bps interest rate cut to 0.50% this year.

Key Forecast Changes

No major forecast changes have been made this quarter.

Key Risks To Outlook

High household leverage and continued housing price growth could lead to a crash in the real estate sector and trigger a recession.

Negotiations with Iran could breakdown and sanctions remain in place, putting upside risks to our oil price outlook, which in turn could pave the way for higher investment in the energy sector and a stronger export performance.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1024063_canada_country_risk_report_q4.aspx?afid=302

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Canada 2013-2016)

Indicator

2013

2014e

2015f

2016f

National Sources/BMI

Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.0 2.5 1.5 1.8
Nominal GDP, USDbn 1,812.3 1,763.8 1,586.9 1,668.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.0
Exchange rate CAD/USD, eop 1.06 1.16 1.28 1.25
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.0 -0.7 -0.4 0.1
Current account balance, % of GDP -3.0 -2.1 -1.6 -1.4

The Canada Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Canada. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Canada's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Canada's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Canada's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Canada, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Canada Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

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Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email: press@fastmr.com
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001

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