"Greece Shipping Report Q4 2015" Published

The outlook for Greek ports and shipping has deteriorated since our last quarterly report, as the government engages in brinkmanship over its debt negotiations and sends confusing signals over the fate of the port privatisation programme. That said, Greek seaports and Piraeus in particular, are to some extent protected by their role as regional gateways, linked to European transit trade demand. We have become more pessimistic over throughput at Piraeus, but we still see positive growth both there and at Thessaloniki.

Since our last quarterly report the economic outlook for Greece has darkened. We have lowered our prediction for GDP growth in 2015 to 0.5% (down from 1.2% previously), which implies that the country's recovery (0.8% growth in 2014 after six years of recession) is beginning to waver. The problem, we believe, is that the new left-wing Syriza government is pursuing a policy of tactical brinkmanship over the country's debt negotiations with the main creditors, threatening radical moves and then backing down at the last moment. Whether this will succeed in gaining concessions is not clear, but it does seem to be rattling consumer and business confidence.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1047935_greece_shipping_report_q4.aspx?afid=302

Economic sentiment peaked around August 2014 and has been trending down since. Retail sales peaked around October and have also been falling. Private consumption has been the main driver of the so-far modest economic revival, so the instability is taking a toll. In addition, an erratic policy on privatisation has worried investors and there is a growing liquidity crunch in the banking sector. However, we see only around a 25% chance of negotiations breaking down completely and leading to Greece leaving the eurozone in 2015. For the moment our core forecast is one of very low growth.

Headline Industry Data

In 2015 tonnage throughput at the port of Piraeus is forecast to grow 1.1% to 14.145mn tonnes; over the medium term to 2019 we project average annual growth of 2.9%.

The Greece Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Greece.

BMI's Greece Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Greece.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Greece

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