"Mexico Food & Drink Report Q4 2013" Published

We have adjusted down our real GDP growth forecast for Mexico for 2013, from 3.6% to a below-consensus 3.0%. There is the potential for an uptick in imported inflation to hamper private consumption. However, we remain confident that growth will accelerate in 2014, in large part due to the positive effects associated with a stronger US economy. As a consequence, we expect a strong upturn in Mexican consumer confidence levels in 2014, which will see household spending accelerate.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

* 2013 per capita food consumption = +3.2%; forecast to 2017 = +24.4%
* 2013 alcoholic drink sales = +7.9%; forecast to 2017 = +40.5%
* 2013 soft drink sales = +5.1%; forecast to 2017 = +29.2%
* 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +6.9%; forecast to 2017 = +39.3%

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/686329_mexico_food_drink_report_q4_2013.aspx?afid=302

Key Company Trends

Barry Callebaut Confident Of Confectionery Growth: Switzerland-based cocoa, chocolate and confectionery producer Barry Callebaut has expanded its Mexican production capacity as it looks to target emerging market growth. Present in Mexico since 2009, the inauguration of its second Mexican factory in summer 2013 marks continuing confidence in the country's confectionery market as well as wider regional opportunities.

Regulators Speak, SABMiller Still Faces Challenges: SABMiller, the world's second largest brewery, reacted unfavourably in summer 2013 to Mexico's antitrust regulators' attempts to open up the country's beer market by capping the exclusive duopoly of its two key rivals: Anheuser-Busch and Heineken. With the country's beer market continuing to demonstrate dynamic growth opportunities, SABMiller's reported disappointment with the maintenance of exclusivity agreements (albeit reduced ones) is unsurprising as it fights for a greater slice of this lucrative segment.

Key Risks To Outlook

Private consumption could be weaker than we are currently anticipating if sustained peso weakness translates into a substantial uptick in imported price pressures. We cannot completely rule out the potential for increased goods prices later in the year, weighing on consumer purchasing power. We also acknowledge some scope that concerns over a weak global growth environment may continue to hinder growth, prompting a slower than anticipated reacceleration in the latter half of 2013.

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