"Belarus Food & Drink Report Q3 2013" is now available at Fast Market Research

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue Aug 20 2013


We expect to see modest year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in Belarusian private consumption over the course of 2013. While household consumption rose to its highest level since Q1 2011 in Q3 2012, (15.1% y-o-y), we caution that this rapid growth was largely due to its low base. Nevertheless, we note that the decline in consumer price inflation has significantly eased pressure on households, as has the cut to the refinancing rate in H2 2012. Generally speaking, however, we continue to view Belarus as a risky market, on account of its political isolation and the high-degree of government involvement in the economy.

Headline Industry Data (local currency):

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/664887_belarus_food_drink_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=302

* 2013 food consumption value growth = +21.10% year-on-year (y-o-y); forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +14.85%.
* 2013 per capita food consumption value growth = +21.48% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +15.21%.
* 2013 alcoholic drinks value sales growth = +25.01% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +13.62%.
* 2013 soft drinks value sales growth = +20.97% y-o-y; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +12.39%.

Key Company Trends

Agricultural Companies to Receive BYR400bn Worth of Loans: According to BelTA reports from June 2013, the government of Belarus will issue some BYR400bn worth of loans to various agricultural companies, as per Resolution No. 445 of the Council of Ministers. The loans, to be provided through OAO Belagroprombank, will reportedly be paid out in the June-September 2013 period, in order to support companies involved in farming and harvesting, processing, and equipment and maintenance companies.

Key Risks To Outlook

Inflation a Risk to Growth: If the current trend of declining consumer price inflation is negated by overly loose monetary policy, we could see a return to very high levels of inflation, with resultant downside risks to our growth forecasts. The government will be keen to avoid this scenario, given the increase in social unrest caused by the last inflationary spike and, therefore, is expected to keep to the current pace of refinancing rate cuts, with the rate reduced by a cumulative 500 basis points since the start of the year.

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