New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Algeria Agribusiness Report Q2 2016"



[USPRwire, Wed Feb 17 2016] With wheat and dairy production systematically short of consumption, Algeria is a major importer of food products. However, the government's new emphasis on the improvement of food self-sufficiency is helping to revive the grains and dairy sectors . While h igher government support is likely to be positive for productivity and prod uct quality in the medium term, Algeria will remain a key importer of wheat and dairy products in the coming years. The country is increasingly expanding trading links with coun tries such as Brazil and India, away from its traditional suppliers such as France , especially for dairy and beef products .

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1118982_algeria_agribusiness_report.aspx?afid=302

Key BMI Forecasts

Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 58.6% to 3.1mn tonnes. This growth rate is due to base effects, as production dropped by 40.9% in 2014/15. Wheat production will struggle, failing to return to the record level of 2012/13 in the coming years.
Milk production growth to 2019/20: 13.3% to 4.1mn tonnes. Our projections are predicated on the government's support for the sector and its plan to develop it by improving breeding methods, as well as the restructuring and further privatisingof segments of the industry.
Milk powder consumption growth to 2020: 6.3% to 200,000 tonnes. Algeria will remain one of the largest importers of milk powder, due to its elevated consumption per capita.
BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD21.1bn in 2016, up 11.7% y-o-y (growth to average 4.9% annually between 2016 and 2020).
2016 real GDP growth: 1.9%, down from 2.3% expected in 2015; predicted to average 2.5% over 2016-2020).
2016 c onsumer price inflation: 5.0%, same as in 2015; predicted to average 4.3% over 2016-2020).

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

The Algerian economy is entering a rough patch, with the country's long-standing vulnerabilities left clearly exposed by the ongoing slump in global energy prices. We expect weaker growth in government spending, lower consumer and business confidence and the managed depreciation of the Algerian dinar to weigh on economic activity over the coming quarters. Growth will be subdued, falling from 2.6% in real terms in 2015 to a low 1.9% in 2016. A likely adjustment in public spending poses risks to the future development of Algeria's agriculture, in which investment is heavily funded by the state.

Algeria's agriculture is seeing positive trends in the ongoing 2015/16 season. Grains output recovered following the steep decline in production recorded in 2014/15. However, wheat output failed to recover to the level reached in 2013/14. However, the 2016/17 grains crop (plantings ended in January 2016) will probably be more subdued as Algeria is experiencing drought conditions. We forecast wheat production to decline, which will support imports.

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