"United States Business Forecast Report Q3 2013" is now available at Fast Market Research
Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "United States Business Forecast Report Q3 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
[USPRwire, Thu May 30 2013] We have downgraded our US real GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.1% from 2.3%, due mainly to base effects from late 2012 and the decision to maintain the 'sequester' cuts to federal spending.
Our core view on the US economy is that the recovery is becoming increasingly entrenched, and that by 2014 many of the headwinds to growth will be dissipating.
Following the 2012 elections, the status quo in Washington remains relatively intact, meaning that political deadlock will continue to be the order of the day.
On the monetary front, we expect the Federal Reserve to begin slowing the rate of its asset purchases in Q413, and stop purchasing further assets altogether in H114. We have also moved our forecast for the first Fed funds rate hike to late 2015, from a previous projection of early 2016.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised down our real GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.1% from 2.3%. Our 2014 growth forecast of 2.7% represents a major bounce from 2013, and is an upgrade from our previous projection of 2.5%.
Downside Risks To Growth Forecast: The biggest external risk is a collapse of the eurozone, which would hit the US via a financial sector shock and via trade channels. A major domestic policy error, especially with regards to the debt ceiling, could push the US into recession.
Downside Risks To Long-Term Outlook: The gaping fiscal deficit and rising government debt burden are not an immediate concern, but they do pose a risk to macroeconomic stability over the longer term.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
You may also be interested in these related reports:
