"Nigeria Country Risk Report Q1 2016" now available at Fast Market Research

Nigeria will continue to struggle with its readjustment to low oil prices, and some policies being pursued by the president and the Central Bank will further constrain growth in the near term. We forecast a real GDP expansion of 3.8% in 2016.

The CBN will maintain the key policy rate at 13.00% at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting in December, as concerns over weak real GDP growth will come to the fore. We believe that the bank's more unorthodox policies must also be relaxed if growth is to be maintained.

Nigeria's current account balance will remain in deficit in 2016, as exports will fail to recover from the 2014 oil price collapse. The deficit will narrow from 2015, however, as an inevitable naira devaluation will limit imports.

Five months into the Buhari Presidency, it has become clear that Muhammadu Buhariis committed to oil sector reform and the fight against corruption. Overall, his Cabinet nominations are market-friendly. However, the overall investment climate has deteriorated on unorthodox economic policies, reduced central bank independence and Boko Haram resilience.

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A repeat of the 2009 Nigerian banking crisis with government bailout is unlikely. Still, low oil prices will weigh on banks' loan growth, as 25-30% of loans go to the oil and gas sector and prospects for the non-oil sector are also dim.

Key Risks

While we believe that security risks will eventually be contained, if the situation significantly deteriorates, this would potentially affect investment, exports, and growth.

Power sector reforms are crucial for long-term productivity gains. If these are slowed or stalled, this would lead to lower long-term trend growth than we currently expect.

The Nigeria Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Nigeria. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Nigeria's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI? Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Nigeria's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Nigeria's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Nigeria, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

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