Market Report, "Venezuela Retail Report Q4 2013", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Nov 20 2013

The Venezuelan Retail Report examines how best to maximise returns in the Venezuelan retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the February 2013 devaluation of Venezuela's currency on the consumer, and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being used by the leading players in the Venezuelan retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Venezuelan per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 53% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 32%. Venezuela comes fifth (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American Retail risk/reward ratings.

Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be one of the strongest performers through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase from US$3.60bn in 2013 to US$5.02bn by 2017, a rise of 39.4%.Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

Full Report Details at

We have made substantial downward revisions to our real GDP growth outlook on Venezuela, following the release of below-expectations Q113 data, which suggest that near-recessionary conditions will prevail in the economy this year. We now forecast real GDP growth to come in at 1.0% in 2013, down from our previous 2.6% estimate, and 2.1% in 2014, compared with 2.8% expected previously.While we had already expected a substantial slowdown in household spending growth this year, there are signs that suggest real private consumption growth will be even weaker than we originally anticipated, prompting us to adjust our forecast.

Indeed, the impact of the currency devaluation has already fuelled consumer price inflation to 30.0% y-o-y, which has resulted in negative wage growth and eroded purchasing power. Although real private consumption expanded by 3.2% y-o-y in Q113, we expect the above-mentioned dynamics to intensify in following quarters as the full effects of the currency devaluation filter in. We therefore forecast real private consumption to slow from 7.0% in 2012 to 1.8% in 2013 (down from 2.0% previously) and 2.0% in 2014 (compared with our 2.2% previous estimate).

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