Market Report, "Turkey Metals Report Q4 2013", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Fri Sep 06 2013

BMI expects the Turkish metals sector to continue on its positive trajectory after performing well in the face of external headwinds over the past few years. We forecast healthy growth in the construction and autos industries boosting domestic demand for Turkish steel. Steady growth of steel exports is also to be expected as construction continues to grow in the Middle East.

Downside risks to our forecast include subdued demand from EU states, depreciation of the Turkish lira raising production costs, political unrest in the country and a global weakening of steel prices. Despite strong growth in 2011 and 2012, H113 has seen a 4% average fall in Turkish steel output year-on-year. We see this as a temporary slowdown in a larger growth picture. However weaker steel prices seem already to be having an impact.

Full Report Details at

Over the long-term we forecast Turkey's total steel production to grow from 37.7mnt in 2013 to 47.0mnt in 2017. We expect to see Turkey's two largest steel producers, Erdemir and Kardemir, continue to outperform following steady growth in output over H113. In July 2013 Standard and Poor's raised Erdemir's long-term corporate credit rating from 'B' to 'B+' reflecting the company's strong operating performance.

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