"Caucasus Country Risk Report Q4 2015" now available at Fast Market Research

Political tensions in the South Caucasus will remain high over the coming years as increased Russian intervention in Georgia's breakaway territories fuels concerns that Russia will attempt to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani-Armenian relations will remain strained over the frozen conflict surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia's economy will continue to struggle during 2015-2016 primarily due to its trade and remittance flow links with ailing Russia. Beyond this we continue to see little means of diversifying its growth model away from one driven by private consumption underpinned by volatile remittance flows.

Georgian real GDP growth will slow over the next two years relative to the 5.5% average growth achieved between 2010 and 2014 due to exposure to Russia's economic crisis, which has been triggered by Western sanctions and magnified by a dramatic fall in global oil prices. We forecast the Russian economy to contract 5.2% in real terms this year.

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Azerbaijan will continue to tread a fine line between siding with either Russia or the EU. Azerbaijan's economic interests can be better served by increasing trade and energy routes with the EU, while maintaining good relations with Moscow will likely assist in keeping the autocratic regime of President Ilham Aliyev in power.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our forecasts for headline real GDP growth to 0.5% and 1.9% for 2015 and 2016, from 2.9% and 3.2% respectively. This sharp downward revision is primarily due to the worsening outlook for Armenia's main trading partner, Russia, which we forecast to experience a 5.2% economic contraction during 2015.

Key Risks To Outlook

The Caucasus Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate

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