"United States Shipping Report Q2 2013" now available at Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research recommends "United States Shipping Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
[USPRwire, Thu May 02 2013] We have raised our real GDP growth forecast to 2.3% from 2.1% for 2013, due to stronger-than-expected economic data at the end of 2012 and a relatively favourable resolution to the 'fiscal cliff' issue at the beginning of the year. Following the 2012 elections, the status quo in Washington remains relatively intact going into 2013, meaning that political deadlock will continue to be the order of the day. We expect the debt ceiling and 'sequester' spending cut issues to be resolved without too much damage to the economy.
Nevertheless, volumes at US ports face headwinds in the form of sluggish private consumption recovery and slow demand for exports. US private consumption will continue to recover very slowly as a combination of still-high unemployment, ongoing deleveraging, low wage growth and a dependency on government transfers continue to weigh on spending growth. The US export sector is likely to face increasing headwinds from abroad, centred around reduced European demand amid a eurozone recession and potential for dollar strength. Just under one quarter of US exports go to the European Union, and the European crisis is also likely to impact non-eurozone demand for US goods and services.
* At the port of Los Angeles (LA) we forecast 4.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in total tonnage in 2013, to reach 69.3mn tonnes.
* At the East Coast port of New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ), growth is forecast to be 2.1% y-o-y in 2013, to reach 143.3mn tonnes.
* We expect LA to record growth of 4.4% in twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) throughput in 2013 to reach 8.4mn TEUs.
* We expect NY/NJ to record a 4.5% increase in TEU throughput in 2013, to reach 5.8mn TEUs.
Key Industry Trends
'Container Cliff' Can Kicked Down The Road
So as the US 'fiscal cliff' has been averted, for the time being at least, so has the 'container cliff', or the potential strike by East and Gulf Coast longshoremen that would effectively shut down container ports on the eastern seaboard. Just as with its more well-known counterpart, however, the container cliff threatens to rear its head again further down the line, and a permanent resolution is yet to be found.
New York/New Jersey Dredging Continues Apace
Investment by the Port of New York/New Jersey in ensuring the facility is able to handle Post-Panamax ships following the opening of the enlarged Panama Canal will enable the port to continue to grow at a faster rate than GDP over the medium term. It will not be without competition for this business, yet the port is already considerably ahead in its improvements, while other facilities continue to struggle for funding.
MSC US Strategy Expands With Long Beach Stake
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