"Pakistan Shipping Report Q3 2013" now available at Fast Market Research

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Jul 22 2013


Steady Growth But Beware Downside Risks

Our immediate economic outlook for Pakistan remains broadly unchanged on our last quarterly shipping report. Despite ongoing structural problems such as the long-running energy crisis, a poor security situation and poor fiscal management, the country has been seeing a gradual improvement in activity levels, largely driven by a supportive monetary policy and an improvement in private sector credit. We continue to expect GDP growth of 4% in fiscal year (FY) 2012/13 (July to June), which would mark the strongest growth in six years, albeit nowhere near the mid-to-high single-digit growth rates achieved prior to the 2008 global economic crisis. For FY2013/14 we are forecasting the same 4% level of expansion. This prediction is, of course, highly sensitive to political risk, particularly with the Pakistan elections which were held in May 2013. There is also a significant risk linked to a potential balance of payments crisis outlined below.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/640297_pakistan_shipping_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=302

Looking at the port sector, we expect volume growth to be positive but with some fairly wide variations. The crisis in the eurozone, Pakistan's most important trading partner, remains a key factor. BMI calculates that the real value of total trade (imports + exports) fell by 1.7% in 2011/12, but is set to recover by 3.5% in 2012/13 and will grow by 3.9% in 2013/14. We think regional demand from neighbouring countries using Pakistani ports as a gateway will provide a little upside potential, but this will not yet be significant.

Headline Industry Data

* 2012/13 tonnage throughput at the Port of Karachi is forecast by BMI to grow by 7.3% to 40.651mn tonnes; growth to slow to 1.6% in 2013/14.
* 2012/13 container throughput growth at the Port of Karachi forecast to increase by 2.2% to 1.531mn 20- foot equivalent units (TEUs); growth in 2013/14 to rise slightly to 2.4%.
* 2012/13 tonnage throughput at the Port of Muhammad Bin Qasim forecast to grow by 5.2% to 25.277mn tonnes; growth in 2013/14 to ease to 3.0%.
* 2012/13 container throughput at the Port of Muhammad Bin Qasim forecast to grow by 4.2% to 762,744 TEUs; growth in 2013/14 to rise to 5.4%.
* Pakistan's total trade forecast to see real growth of 3.5% in 2012/13, rising to 3.9% in 2013/14.

Key Industry Trends

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