"Netherlands Freight Transport Report Q3 2013" now available at Fast Market Research

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Jul 24 2013

Recovery Pushed Back To 2014

Since our last quarterly report we have become more pessimistic about the Netherlands' economic outlook in 2013. While reassured over the new government's policy direction following its formation late in 2012, we the see the economy sliding further into recession. We believe net exports and public spending have been making a positive contribution to growth - indeed, our hopes of a recovery have all along been based on stronger eurozone demand for Dutch exports. However we now feel that there are negatives which more than offset these sources of stimulus and have forced us to cut our 2013 GDP forecast from 0.2% to -0.6%. The main negatives are rising unemployment and falling property prices which have between them formed a kind of pincer movement, undermining consumer confidence and spending. Since reaching a peak in 2008, private property prices are now down by nearly 25%, with some mortgage borrowers in negative equity territory. Persistent low employment numbers and inflation have also combined to erode purchasing power. Bearing all this in mind, we do not believe GDP will get back into positive growth until 2014, when we expect expansion at a modest 0.9%.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/640290_netherlands_freight_transport_report_q3_2013.aspx?afid=302

In spite of this disappointing outlook for the country's economy, and some trimming of our freight forecasts, we continue to expect that in 2013 most freight transport modes are likely to see cargo volume growth in the 1%-5% range. In all cases, in fact, tonnage growth will exceed the general rate of GDP expansion. There are various reasons for this, with perhaps the most important being the country's role as a gateway into northern Europe. This means that freight demand reflects not just the fortunes of the Dutch economy, but also those of a number of better-performing neighbours in northern Europe.

Headline Industry Data

* Port of Rotterdam bulk throughput forecast for 2013: growth of 5.1% to 463,932mn tonnes. Container traffic to expand by 4.2% to 12.364mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
* 2013 Port of Amsterdam bulk throughput forecast to grow by 2.2% to 74.431mn tonnes. Container traffic to grow by 4.5% to 49,195 TEUs.
* 2013 rail freight total tonnage volume growth to come in at 2.3%, to reach 41.4mn tonnes.
* 2013 road freight total tonnage volume growth to come in at 2.0%, to reach 584.6mn tonnes.
* 2013 inland waterway freight total tonnage volume growth to come in at 2.8% to reach 364.5mn tonnes.
* 2013 total trade growth forecast set at 2.8% in real terms - similar to 2012.
* Export growth remains sluggish, at 2.5%, for both 2012 estimates and 2013 forecasts.

Key Industry Trends

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