We forecast positive growth across Israel's freight transport modes in 2016 and 2017 . This is an improvement on recent years, when the sector has seen declining volumes on air planes and at the country's major ports, owing to sluggish economic growth - domestically and in major trade partner Europe - and political instability on its borders with other states, and with Gaza . Political ri sk is always a threat in Israel and could derail our forecasts should further war break out with Gaza or other of Israel's neighbours .
Israel will see a recovery in its total trade real growth in 2016. We forecast there will be 3.3% expansion, following an estimated 2.5% real contraction in total trade in 2015. This will be driven by a 5.0% boost in imports, while exports will undergo much slower growth at 1.5%. The disparity between the two will diminish in 2017, when imports will expand 5.0% once more, but exports will see stronger growth at 3.5%. Real growth in trade will remain positive over our medium-term forecast period, averaging 4.5% annually to 2020. This marks an improvement over the previous five years when trade growth averaged 2.1% annually due to the global economic crisis and political unrest.
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We forecast road haulage volumes in Israel will expand by 3.3% in 2016, marking an acceleration on 2015's estimated growth of 0.1%. Our forecasts are predicated primarily on the macroeconomic outlook for Israel in 2016, where we see real GDP growth picking up to 3.4% following an estimated 2.1% in 2015. Our 2015 estimate was a downward revision from our previous outlook of 2.6% in 2015, owing to ongoing violence in the country. Given its erratic nature, we do not believe that the current wave of violence in Israel will subside before end-2015, impacting private consumption in Q415 and headline growth for 2015.
The Israel Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Israel Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Israeli freight transport and logistics industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Israel to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Israeli freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Israel.
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"Israel Freight Transport Report Q1 2016" now available at Fast Market Research
Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email: press@fastmr.com
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email: press@fastmr.com
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001