Bahrain Autos Report Q4 2015 - New Study Released

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue Oct 20 2015

This quarter, BMI maintains its view that new vehicle sales growth will slow over 2015. We continue to target a still-healthy 6.5% sales growth for the current year, down from the very strong estimated 14% growth seen over 2014. A deteriorating macroeconomic picture is the main reason behind our expectation for lower new car sales growth in 2015. As one of the MENA countries most exposed to lower oil prices, it is clear that Bahrain's growth outlook has weakened since the end of last year. The retrenchment in global oil prices is putting substantial pressure on the state finances - and by implication the system of public spending underpinning the non-oil economy. Throughout the remainder of 2015 and into 2016, private sector activity will suffer from further erosion in consumer and business confidence, already weakened by the persistent uncertainty of Bahrain's political environment. That said, the impact of the oil price slump will be cushioned by macroeconomic and financial assistance from the rest of the Gulf - in the form of infrastructure funding and the purchase of Bahrain's fixed income instruments. We forecast Bahrain's economic growth slowing to a still-respectable rate of 3.4% in real terms this year and 3.3% in 2016, compared to an annualised 4.0% between 2010 and 2014.

Full Report Details at

Bahrain's dependence on hydrocarbons is pronounced. The government derives nearly 90% of its revenue from the oil and gas sector and we expect the country's budget deficit to widen to a record 10.5% of GDP this year. Bahrain has limited foreign exchange reserves and its sovereign wealth fund Mumtalakat only has assets of USD10.5bn. As such, we believe that Manama will have little option but to introduce new taxes over the coming years, while the issue of spending consolidation will loom large on the agenda. This could weigh on the prospects for passenger car and SUV sales in particular.

The Bahrain Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Bahrain Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Bahrain.

Key Benefits

* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Bahrain to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Bahraini automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Bahraini automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bahrain.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.


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