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[USPRwire, Tue Jan 20 2015] BMI expects tourist arrivals to grow steadily in 2015, albeit slightly below 2014 levels. This is due to falling arrivals from Europe, as well as a slow pickup in arrivals from the US.
As Mexico's tourism industry is heavily dependent on arrivals from the neighbouring US, the outlook for the US has a major impact on our forecasts for Mexican tourism. We are forecasting GDP growth of 2.7% in the US in 2015, up from 2.3% in 2014. We expect that this will feed through into US arrivals of 6.1mn to Mexico in 2015, up from 6.0mn in 2014. We also note that Mexican visitors to the US will grow by a higher rate in 2015, by 5.9% to 21.7mn. We believe that this reflects the growing wealth and middle class in Mexico and the increase in short-term cross-border tourism.
Key forecasts for Mexico's tourism industry:
* BMI forecasts air passenger arrivals will grow strongly over the forecast period, to 39.2mn passengers in 2015 and then rising to 45.0mn by 2018.
* BMI is forecasting arrivals of 12.1mn in 2015, representing growth of 2.0%. The growth rate will then pick up to 2.8% in 2016, to 12.4mn.
* We expect hotel growth to remain steady over the forecast period, rising by 1.6% to 19,720 hotels in 2015 and reaching 21,140 by 2018.
* In November 2014, the Mexican government cancelled a USD3.75bn high-speed rail contract connecting Mexico City and Quertaro that had been awarded to a Chinese firm. The cancellation, and the likely legal action as a result, will delay implementation of the project, which would have provided a useful connection between the two major urban centres.
* Major protests took place against the government in October and November following the disappearance of 43 students in Guerrero and the suspicion that the local authorities were involved. This is likely to raise international concerns about Mexico's security situation.
* There were 170 hotels in the Mexico and Caribbean hotel pipeline in September 2014, according to Smith Travel...
The Mexico Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Mexico Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican tourism industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Mexico to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Mexican tourism market.
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