Just Published: "Germany Business Forecast Report Q1 2015"

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Germany Business Forecast Report Q1 2015", is now available at Fast Market Research

[USPRwire, Tue Dec 16 2014] Core Views

* Our long-held bearish view towards the German economy appears to be playing out. We have moved even further below consensus on German growth for 2014/15, as weakening confidence will cap both investment and consumption growth over the coming quarters.
* While we believe Germany's current account surplus has peaked, narrowing of the surplus over the next five years will be limited by tight fiscal policy, which will in turn hamper the regional economic recovery.
* German energy policy will continue to drive significant structural economic imbalances. While attempts to shield industry from the cost of transition towards renewable energy resources will curtail consumption, German industrial competitiveness will eventually suffer from higher energy costs.
* We expect German foreign policy to become increasingly isolationist over the next few years, driven by the declining global influence of the US, changing attitudes of a younger generation and fatigue with the lack of reform among eurozone states.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/912216_germany_business_forecast_report_q1_2015.aspx?afid=302

Major Forecast Changes

* We believe that the regional fallout from the Ukraine crisis exacerbated the recent collapse in leading and coincident indicators, hence our decision to move even further below consensus on growth for 2014 and 2015 - to 1.1% and 1.3% from 1.5% for both, taking us even further below consensus (currently at 1.5% and 1.8% according to Bloomberg surveys).

Key Risks To Outlook

* Our core scenario envisages that the incipient recovery in economic activity is sustained over the next few quarters, as improved manufacturing output feeds through into stronger domestic demand. However, a more rapid slowdown in export growth on the back of slumping emerging market demand could choke off this recovery, which would mean our modest growth forecast for 2015 is too optimistic.
* External (particularly Chinese) demand and euro trajectory also pose threats to Germany's external account and net export outlook. Our view is for a moderation in demand...

The Germany Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Germany and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Germany's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

* Forecast the pace and stability of Germany's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

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