Fast Market Research recommends "Pakistan Shipping Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
[USPRwire, Thu Oct 17 2013] Recovery On The Cards For Fiscal 2013/14
Two major things have impacted our forecasts for the Pakistani economy since our last quarterly report. First, after widespread revisions to the country's GDP series, it appears that growth was much weaker than expected in the 2012/13 fiscal year (which ran from July 2012 to June 2013). Economic growth in the revised national accounts data in fact declined to a three-year low of 3.6%. That said, the second point is that a number of factors confirm good recovery prospects for 2013/14. On the political front the clear victory for the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in the May general elections has helped build a degree of confidence. This was the first orderly transition from one elected government to another in Pakistan's modern history. Recent data releases have shown manufacturing output, private sector credit, and foreign direct investment all beginning to pick up in the last few months. We also believe the new administration will act to improve the fiscal balance, monetary policy will remain supportive, and that Pakistan's two main export markets, the EU and the US, will grow a little faster. The biggest downside risks include the country's long-running energy crisis and the poor security environment, two challenges that are impossible to resolve overnight and that are likely to continue to hold back the economy's full potential. Taking all this into account, we now expect GDP growth of 4.0% in 2013/14, and 4.0% again in the following year, 2014/15.
Looking at the port sector, we expect volume growth to be quite strongly positive in 2013/14, coming in ahead of GDP, and largely because we are now predicting a significant recovery in foreign trade, which will rebound by 11.3% in real terms.
Headline Industry Data
* 2013/14-tonnage throughput at the Port of Karachi is forecast by BMI to grow by 4.4% to 41.813mn tonnes.
* 2013/14 container throughput growth at the Port of Karachi forecast to increase by 2.4% to 1.566mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
* 2013/14 tonnage throughput at the Port of Muhammad Bin Qasim forecast to grow by 5.2% to 26.601mn tonnes.
* 2013/14 container throughput at the Port of Muhammad Bin Qasim forecast to grow by 5.4% to 803,746TEUs.
* Pakistan's total trade forecast to see real growth rebounding strongly to reach 11.3% in 2013/14.
Key Industry Trends
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